Canada at a Crossroads

Choices in a Fractured World

History moves in surges. Decades of stability lull nations into believing the world is predictable, until the tide shifts, and old certainties collapse. Canada now faces such a moment. Europe is rearming. Ukraine stands on the threshold of nuclear capability. The United States, long Canada’s strategic bedrock, is dissolving into internal contradictions and withdrawing from global leadership. These are not slow-moving changes to be managed over generations. These are tectonic shifts demanding a response.

For decades, Canada has avoided hard choices in foreign policy. Geography shielded it, alliances sustained it, and a belief in multilateralism allowed it to play a supporting role while others took the lead. That era is over. The world is fragmenting, alliances are recalibrating, and Canada must decide: will it take command of its own fate, or remain at the mercy of powers that may no longer protect its interests?

The Collapse of Assumptions

Three events have shattered the foundation of Canada’s strategic thinking:

1. Europe’s Rearmament: The European Union, once content to rely on American power, is militarizing at an unprecedented rate. Germany, long hesitant to lead militarily, is now committing billions to defence. Poland is emerging as a continental power, and France is expanding its nuclear doctrine to account for a future where Europe may need to defend itself alone. Europe is no longer America’s dependent, it is preparing to act alone.
2. Ukraine’s Nuclear Path: The mere fact that serious voices in Ukraine are advocating for nuclear weapons is an unmistakable sign of a changing world order. It means trust in Western security guarantees has eroded. If Ukraine, once willing to disarm in exchange for security, now seeks nuclear weapons, what does that say about the reliability of NATO’s protection? If deterrence no longer functions, every nation must think for itself.
3. America’s Strategic Disintegration: Washington is not simply disengaging, it's unraveling. The suspension of military aid to Ukraine is not an isolated event; it's a symptom of a larger collapse. If the U.S. can no longer be counted on to uphold its own commitments, then its allies are on their own. The post-war Western order, built on American power, is over. The question is: who adapts in time, and who is left behind?

Press statement by President von der Leyen on the defence package

We are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times. I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face. Or the devastating consequences that we will have to endure if those

European Commission - European Commission

Ukraine Can Go Nuclear — Should it?

Western nations are being naïve if they expect Ukraine to quietly acquiesce to its own eradication. Will Ukraine go nuclear?

CEPAElena Davlikanova

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/trump-pauses-military-aid-to-ukraine-after-clash-with-zelenskiy

Canada’s Place in a World Without Guarantees

For Canada, the easy answers are gone. It can no longer assume NATO will function as before. It can no longer assume the U.S. will act in its interests. It can no longer assume diplomacy alone will protect it. The choices ahead are stark.

1. Canada as a European Ally: A Pivot to the Continent

If America withdraws, Canada could deepen its military and economic ties with Europe. This would mean:

• Increasing defence spending to align with European partners rather than the U.S.
• Integrating Canadian forces into European military structures for joint operations.
• Expanding Canada’s role in nuclear-sharing agreements with France or the UK.

This would be a decisive break from past doctrine. Canada has always followed the U.S. in strategic affairs. To choose Europe would be to recognize that the U.S. may no longer be the dominant force in the Western world.

2. Strategic Autonomy: A Nuclear Debate Canada Can No Longer Avoid

If Ukraine goes nuclear, it will not be alone. The return of nuclear deterrence as a central pillar of global security would force Canada to reconsider its own posture. The country has long prided itself on being a non-nuclear state. But in a world where middle powers are acquiring nuclear weapons to secure their sovereignty, how long can that stance last?

The simplest option would not be independent nuclear development, but rather:

• Hosting allied nuclear forces on Canadian soil.
• Developing extended deterrence agreements with France or the UK, rather than relying on U.S. nuclear guarantees.
• Expanding its Arctic defence posture to counterbalance Russian capabilities.

This would be a profound shift in identity. But the question is no longer what Canada wants to be. It's what Canada needs to be, to survive in the coming world.

3. Economic and Military Realignment with Asia

If Europe and the U.S. are drifting apart, Canada could attempt a deeper pivot toward Asia. This would mean prioritizing trade and defence agreements with nations such as:

• Japan, which is undergoing its own military expansion.
• China, which is quietly taking advantage as Western alliances dissolve.
• Australia, which faces the same challenges of Western decline.

This would be a high-risk, high-reward strategy. It would mean loosening ties with the West and betting on Asia as the new centre of global power. It would also require navigating China’s rapidly expanding influence, a challenge Canada has never fully prepared for.

The Cost of Indecision

Canada’s greatest danger is to do nothing. A world in flux does not wait for slow-moving nations to catch up. If Canada fails to act, the consequences will be clear:

• It will be left behind as Europe builds a new defence order.
• It will be exposed as nuclear deterrence returns to the centre of global security.
• It will be economically vulnerable if U.S. decline accelerates.

The time for polite diplomacy is over. The time for strategic clarity has arrived.

Canada’s Future: Power or Passivity?

Canada has a choice. It can accept a diminished role in a world that is becoming harsher and more unpredictable. Or it can seize this moment to define its own future: by building new alliances, strengthening its defences, and embracing the reality of power in a fractured world.

The decisions made now will define Canada for the next century. In times of upheaval, some nations hesitate and fade. Others act and endure. The question is simple: which will Canada be?

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Europe rearms. Ukraine prepares for nukes. The U.S. retreats.

Canada has lived in history’s shadow for too long. Now the world is shifting. Alliances fracture, deterrence breaks, and power moves to those who seize it.

If Canada waits, it will be left behind.

PS -